IEA modifies down 2011, 2012 international oil need growth projection
LONDON-The International Power Firm (IEA) on Wednesday modified down its global oil need development projection for 2011 by 50,000 bbl/day and by 210,000 bbl/day for 2012 as a result of a downward adjustment to GDP growth assumptions.
HEDP 60 in 2011 is currently anticipated to climb 1.1%- or by 1.0 m bbl/day compared with last year-to 89.2 m bbl/day. In 2012, demand will certainly climb 1.4%- or by 1.3 m bbl/day-to reach 90.5 m bbl/day.
The IEA likewise pointed out lower-than-expected third-quarter analyses in the non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation as well as Development) nations as a factor for the downward revision.
" Stronger-than-expected OECD month-to-month entries, mostly in Europe and the Pacific, supply some balancing out assistance," the Paris-headquartered global firm included.
" A few of the need boost originates from temporary factors, such as seasonal heating oil tank dental filling, while oil-fired power generation in Japan offers a lot more enduring upside possibility."
According to the IEA's October oil market report, international oil supply fell by 300,000 bbl/day to 88.7 m bbl/day in September from August, driven reduced by minimized non-OPEC output.
Non-OPEC supply dropped by 300,000 bbl/day to 52.6 m bbl/day in September, mostly due to weather-and maintenance-related shut-ins in The United States and Canada, the North Sea and Latin America, along with unintended blackouts between East, the IEA added.
"OPEC crude oil supply was down by a small 20,000 bbl/day to 30.15 m bbl/day in September, with reduced result by Saudi Arabia and also Nigeria partially countered by the resumption of Libyan manufacturing," it stated.
In refining, estimates for global unrefined runs in the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2011 have actually been revised downwards by 50,000 bbl/day as well as 75,000 bbl/day respectively given that the IEA's record last month.
"Stronger United States runs only partly offset lower-than-expected throughputs in Asia. Worldwide throughputs currently balance 75.5 m bbl/day in [the] third quarter and also 75.3 m bbl/day in [the] fourth quarter," the IEA said.
HEDP 60 in 2011 is currently anticipated to climb 1.1%- or by 1.0 m bbl/day compared with last year-to 89.2 m bbl/day. In 2012, demand will certainly climb 1.4%- or by 1.3 m bbl/day-to reach 90.5 m bbl/day.
The IEA likewise pointed out lower-than-expected third-quarter analyses in the non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation as well as Development) nations as a factor for the downward revision.
" Stronger-than-expected OECD month-to-month entries, mostly in Europe and the Pacific, supply some balancing out assistance," the Paris-headquartered global firm included.
" A few of the need boost originates from temporary factors, such as seasonal heating oil tank dental filling, while oil-fired power generation in Japan offers a lot more enduring upside possibility."
According to the IEA's October oil market report, international oil supply fell by 300,000 bbl/day to 88.7 m bbl/day in September from August, driven reduced by minimized non-OPEC output.
Non-OPEC supply dropped by 300,000 bbl/day to 52.6 m bbl/day in September, mostly due to weather-and maintenance-related shut-ins in The United States and Canada, the North Sea and Latin America, along with unintended blackouts between East, the IEA added.
"OPEC crude oil supply was down by a small 20,000 bbl/day to 30.15 m bbl/day in September, with reduced result by Saudi Arabia and also Nigeria partially countered by the resumption of Libyan manufacturing," it stated.
In refining, estimates for global unrefined runs in the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2011 have actually been revised downwards by 50,000 bbl/day as well as 75,000 bbl/day respectively given that the IEA's record last month.
"Stronger United States runs only partly offset lower-than-expected throughputs in Asia. Worldwide throughputs currently balance 75.5 m bbl/day in [the] third quarter and also 75.3 m bbl/day in [the] fourth quarter," the IEA said.
Macquarie revises nickel outlook, sees international market in excess this year
Australian financial investment bank Macquarie has modified its supply and demand outlook for the worldwide nickel market as well as is forecasting a 15,000 mt surplus this year.
The bank previously anticipated the worldwide nickel market to tape a 30,000 mt deficit in 2015.
" The weaker demand expectation (as well as worries about it) integrated with the huge supply overhang make our previous view that prices would rally to the $15,000-17,000/ mt range by year's end appearance extremely implausible now," Macquarie said in a research note.
Stainless-steel demand-- which makes up around two thirds of international nickel usage-- is currently just anticipated to expand by 2.4% this year, compared with Macquarie's previous forecast of 4%.
" While demand growth has actually been weak for nickel this year (down about 2% year on year in H1 2015), so has supply. In January-June, we approximate that global nickel manufacturing dropped by 1.5% year on year, composed of a 22% fall in Chinese nickel pig iron production (as a result of the Indonesian ore export restriction) and a 6% increase in production elsewhere worldwide," the financial institution said.
hedp na4 that around 50% of worldwide nickel production is loss-making on a cash basis at present price levels.
Macquarie stated that, until now, manufacturing lowerings and closures had actually been restricted because of 2 elements:
1) costs are falling in line with reduced metal rates, reduced energy costs and a stronger dollar;
2) there still continues to be widespread positive outlook regarding greater prices in 2016 so most manufacturers intend to 'hang on' for greater costs.
On Chinese demand, the bank is bearish on the outlook for the second half of 2015, as well as no more sees compelling proof for a solid rebound-- as a matter of fact there are concerns that need is weakening in the very temporary, it stated.
Macquarie anticipates worldwide nickel supply to fall 2.3% year on year to 1.95 million mt, driven mostly by an 85,000 mt year-on-year autumn in Chinese nickel pig iron manufacturing.
Three-months nickel on LMEselect was trading at $10,590/ mt at 1205 GMT Monday.
The bank previously anticipated the worldwide nickel market to tape a 30,000 mt deficit in 2015.
" The weaker demand expectation (as well as worries about it) integrated with the huge supply overhang make our previous view that prices would rally to the $15,000-17,000/ mt range by year's end appearance extremely implausible now," Macquarie said in a research note.
Stainless-steel demand-- which makes up around two thirds of international nickel usage-- is currently just anticipated to expand by 2.4% this year, compared with Macquarie's previous forecast of 4%.
" While demand growth has actually been weak for nickel this year (down about 2% year on year in H1 2015), so has supply. In January-June, we approximate that global nickel manufacturing dropped by 1.5% year on year, composed of a 22% fall in Chinese nickel pig iron production (as a result of the Indonesian ore export restriction) and a 6% increase in production elsewhere worldwide," the financial institution said.
hedp na4 that around 50% of worldwide nickel production is loss-making on a cash basis at present price levels.
Macquarie stated that, until now, manufacturing lowerings and closures had actually been restricted because of 2 elements:
1) costs are falling in line with reduced metal rates, reduced energy costs and a stronger dollar;
2) there still continues to be widespread positive outlook regarding greater prices in 2016 so most manufacturers intend to 'hang on' for greater costs.
On Chinese demand, the bank is bearish on the outlook for the second half of 2015, as well as no more sees compelling proof for a solid rebound-- as a matter of fact there are concerns that need is weakening in the very temporary, it stated.
Macquarie anticipates worldwide nickel supply to fall 2.3% year on year to 1.95 million mt, driven mostly by an 85,000 mt year-on-year autumn in Chinese nickel pig iron manufacturing.
Three-months nickel on LMEselect was trading at $10,590/ mt at 1205 GMT Monday.
NWE naphtha split strikes 18-month high up on Asian toughness, weaker crude
The front-month CIF Northwest Europe naphtha fracture struck an 18-month high Monday driven by strength in the Asian naphtha market as well as the continuous downtrend in unrefined futures, according to market sources.
The split-- naphtha's worth against crude-- was analyzed at minus $2.85/ barrel Monday, up from Friday's close of minus $3.45/ b.
The last time the front-month naphtha split was analyzed higher was December 24, 2012, when it was minus $2.60/ b.
Around midday London time Tuesday, the balance-month CIF NWE naphtha split was pegged around minus $1.20/ b, up from minus $1.95/ b Monday, and the front-month split was seen trading around minus $2.20/ barrel.
"Splits are getting even greater today. HEDP 's because we are following the Eastern stamina as well as crude rates are falling," said a market individual.
"The arb to Asia is large open from the Med but in Northwest Europe, the physical naphtha market is long, oversupplied," he included.
"A whole lot more product is going from Europe to the East, also if we have yet to see any naphtha component from NWE to Asia," claimed a broker.
After widening Monday to $16.50/ mt from $16/mt Friday, the front-month east/west spread-- the costs of CFR Japan naphtha freight swaps over the CIF NWE naphtha freight swap-- was pegged Tuesday at $17/mt.
Resilient fuel view has helped fortify the Eastern naphtha market with traders stating Tuesday that naphtha barrels were being carried towards the gas pool, draining the general readily available volumes of naphtha in Asia.
"Naphtha demand appears to be rather OK, volumes are entering into fuel and also with LPG freight prices skyrocketing, [petrochemical] end-users are choosing to count on naphtha as fracturing feedstock," an Eastern investor said Tuesday.
At the Asian close Monday, the CFR Japan H1 September naphtha crack versus September ICE Brent futures was hovering at a six-month high of $161.33/ mt. The fracture was last greater on January 13 when it was $164.68/ mt, according to Platts information.
The split-- naphtha's worth against crude-- was analyzed at minus $2.85/ barrel Monday, up from Friday's close of minus $3.45/ b.
The last time the front-month naphtha split was analyzed higher was December 24, 2012, when it was minus $2.60/ b.
Around midday London time Tuesday, the balance-month CIF NWE naphtha split was pegged around minus $1.20/ b, up from minus $1.95/ b Monday, and the front-month split was seen trading around minus $2.20/ barrel.
"Splits are getting even greater today. HEDP 's because we are following the Eastern stamina as well as crude rates are falling," said a market individual.
"The arb to Asia is large open from the Med but in Northwest Europe, the physical naphtha market is long, oversupplied," he included.
"A whole lot more product is going from Europe to the East, also if we have yet to see any naphtha component from NWE to Asia," claimed a broker.
After widening Monday to $16.50/ mt from $16/mt Friday, the front-month east/west spread-- the costs of CFR Japan naphtha freight swaps over the CIF NWE naphtha freight swap-- was pegged Tuesday at $17/mt.
Resilient fuel view has helped fortify the Eastern naphtha market with traders stating Tuesday that naphtha barrels were being carried towards the gas pool, draining the general readily available volumes of naphtha in Asia.
"Naphtha demand appears to be rather OK, volumes are entering into fuel and also with LPG freight prices skyrocketing, [petrochemical] end-users are choosing to count on naphtha as fracturing feedstock," an Eastern investor said Tuesday.
At the Asian close Monday, the CFR Japan H1 September naphtha crack versus September ICE Brent futures was hovering at a six-month high of $161.33/ mt. The fracture was last greater on January 13 when it was $164.68/ mt, according to Platts information.
NWE naphtha split hits 18-month high on Eastern strength, weak crude
The front-month CIF Northwest Europe naphtha crack struck an 18-month high Monday driven by strength in the Oriental naphtha market and the continuous sag in unrefined futures, according to market resources.
this page -- naphtha's value against crude-- was analyzed at minus $2.85/ barrel Monday, up from Friday's close of minus $3.45/ b.
The last time the front-month naphtha split was analyzed higher was December 24, 2012, when it was minus $2.60/ b.
Around noontime London time Tuesday, the balance-month CIF NWE naphtha crack was pegged around minus $1.20/ b, up from minus $1.95/ b Monday, and the front-month crack was seen trading around minus $2.20/ barrel.
"Fractures are getting back at higher today. It's due to the fact that we are adhering to the Oriental toughness as well as crude rates are falling," stated a market participant.
"The arb to Asia is large open from the Medication but in Northwest Europe, the physical naphtha market is long, oversupplied," he added.
"A lot much more product is going from Europe to the East, also if we have yet to see any naphtha component from NWE to Asia," claimed a broker.
After broadening Monday to $16.50/ mt from $16/mt Friday, the front-month east/west spread-- the costs of CFR Japan naphtha freight swaps over the CIF NWE naphtha freight swap-- was secured Tuesday at $17/mt.
Buoyant gasoline belief has actually aided fortify the Asian naphtha market with investors stating Tuesday that naphtha barrels were being transported towards the gasoline swimming pool, draining pipes the general available quantities of naphtha in Asia.
"Naphtha demand seems to be rather OKAY, volumes are going into fuel and also with LPG freight rates skyrocketing, [petrochemical] end-users are favoring to depend on naphtha as fracturing feedstock," an Eastern investor stated Tuesday.
At the Asian close Monday, the CFR Japan H1 September naphtha fracture versus September ICE Brent futures was floating at a six-month high of $161.33/ mt. The fracture was last higher on January 13 when it was $164.68/ mt, according to Platts data.
this page -- naphtha's value against crude-- was analyzed at minus $2.85/ barrel Monday, up from Friday's close of minus $3.45/ b.
The last time the front-month naphtha split was analyzed higher was December 24, 2012, when it was minus $2.60/ b.
Around noontime London time Tuesday, the balance-month CIF NWE naphtha crack was pegged around minus $1.20/ b, up from minus $1.95/ b Monday, and the front-month crack was seen trading around minus $2.20/ barrel.
"Fractures are getting back at higher today. It's due to the fact that we are adhering to the Oriental toughness as well as crude rates are falling," stated a market participant.
"The arb to Asia is large open from the Medication but in Northwest Europe, the physical naphtha market is long, oversupplied," he added.
"A lot much more product is going from Europe to the East, also if we have yet to see any naphtha component from NWE to Asia," claimed a broker.
After broadening Monday to $16.50/ mt from $16/mt Friday, the front-month east/west spread-- the costs of CFR Japan naphtha freight swaps over the CIF NWE naphtha freight swap-- was secured Tuesday at $17/mt.
Buoyant gasoline belief has actually aided fortify the Asian naphtha market with investors stating Tuesday that naphtha barrels were being transported towards the gasoline swimming pool, draining pipes the general available quantities of naphtha in Asia.
"Naphtha demand seems to be rather OKAY, volumes are going into fuel and also with LPG freight rates skyrocketing, [petrochemical] end-users are favoring to depend on naphtha as fracturing feedstock," an Eastern investor stated Tuesday.
At the Asian close Monday, the CFR Japan H1 September naphtha fracture versus September ICE Brent futures was floating at a six-month high of $161.33/ mt. The fracture was last higher on January 13 when it was $164.68/ mt, according to Platts data.
Italy gas imports from Libya, storage space withdrawals up in Nov
. Italian imports of Libyan gas in November increased to regarding half of the level seen prior to the conflict in the North African country in 2014, while total need for natural gas in Italy was down 2.5% in the month, according to ministry data Wednesday.
Imports of gas via the Greenstream pipeline linking Libya to Italy completed 421 million cubic meters in November, the Ministro di Sviluppo Economico claimed Wednesday. This was a drop of 51% from 856 million cu m in the year-ago month, however a rise from 80 million cu m imported in October through the undersea web link.
Imports of Algerian gas were additionally dramatically lower in November, with the country importing 1.22 billion cu m through the Trans-Tunisian pipe right into Mazara del Vallo in Sicily, below 2.21 Bcm last November.
Overall, gas need in Italy dropped 2.5% on the year to 7.59 Bcm.
Imports on the whole were down 17% to 5.61 Bcm, while national production increased 4.0% to 717 million cu m, the ministry information revealed.
Withdrawals from storage space nearly tripled on the year, totaling 1.28 Bcm in November compared with 331 million cu m in the year-ago month.
Imports from all various other significant pipes and LNG terminals were likewise down compared to 2010, the data showed.
The nation imported the matching of 168 million cu m of LNG via the Panigaglia terminal on the west coast, down 19% on the year, and also 531 million cu m of regasified LNG using the Adriatic LNG terminal on the east coastline, down 18%. Imports of Russian gas via Tarvisio dropped 3.4% to 2.73 Bcm.
In the year-to-date, gas need is down 4.8%, MSE said, with pipelines importing primarily Russian and Norwegian gas via Tarvisio and also Passo Gries the busiest, to offset the Libyan deficiency.
Imports from Libya were down 79% year-on-year for the 11 months, while pipe imports from Algeria were down 14%. hedp na through Tarvisio boosted 25% in the 11-month duration while imports from the North Sea region via Passo Gries increased 28%, MSE said.
Imports of gas via the Greenstream pipeline linking Libya to Italy completed 421 million cubic meters in November, the Ministro di Sviluppo Economico claimed Wednesday. This was a drop of 51% from 856 million cu m in the year-ago month, however a rise from 80 million cu m imported in October through the undersea web link.
Imports of Algerian gas were additionally dramatically lower in November, with the country importing 1.22 billion cu m through the Trans-Tunisian pipe right into Mazara del Vallo in Sicily, below 2.21 Bcm last November.
Overall, gas need in Italy dropped 2.5% on the year to 7.59 Bcm.
Imports on the whole were down 17% to 5.61 Bcm, while national production increased 4.0% to 717 million cu m, the ministry information revealed.
Withdrawals from storage space nearly tripled on the year, totaling 1.28 Bcm in November compared with 331 million cu m in the year-ago month.
Imports from all various other significant pipes and LNG terminals were likewise down compared to 2010, the data showed.
The nation imported the matching of 168 million cu m of LNG via the Panigaglia terminal on the west coast, down 19% on the year, and also 531 million cu m of regasified LNG using the Adriatic LNG terminal on the east coastline, down 18%. Imports of Russian gas via Tarvisio dropped 3.4% to 2.73 Bcm.
In the year-to-date, gas need is down 4.8%, MSE said, with pipelines importing primarily Russian and Norwegian gas via Tarvisio and also Passo Gries the busiest, to offset the Libyan deficiency.
Imports from Libya were down 79% year-on-year for the 11 months, while pipe imports from Algeria were down 14%. hedp na through Tarvisio boosted 25% in the 11-month duration while imports from the North Sea region via Passo Gries increased 28%, MSE said.
